Some thoughts on Russia and Ukraine (i.e. How We Got Here)

Although in college I majored in history, with a focus on 19th century American history, my minor was political science with a focus on the Soviet Union and Russia. So I studied Russian history and culture, took three semesters of Russian language and one of Russian literature, and a variety of courses about the collapse of the Soviet Union, the political reshaping of Eastern Europe (including the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia), and post-Communism Russia. It’s a fascinating country, and has loomed large in the history of Europe, particularly its neighbors in Eastern Europe, like Ukraine. I have admired Russian writers, adored Russian composers, and occasionally tried some Russian food, although frankly I liked the food much less than other aspects of Russian culture. Making Russian friends also gave me the chance to practice my Russian language skills, and my mastery of Russian profanity and idioms made some of my Russian friends laugh and at least one stop in her tracks and say “Where did you learn THAT?” My background in Russian also came in handy a bit when I worked in the defense industry. But after I left the industry in 2009, I just didn’t really get the chance to do much with all that knowledge anymore.

Then in 2013, something happened in Ukraine. The Ukrainian parliament had voted overwhelmingly in favor of an agreement with the European Union that the President of Ukraine (Viktor Yanukovych) then refused to sign, apparently due to influence from Russia. Protests began in Independence Square in Kyiv that quickly grew massive as Ukrainians wanting closer relations with Europe began demanding the resignation of not only President Yanukovych but the entire Azarov government as well. The protests which began in November 2013 became known as Yevromaidan (or more commonly in English, Euromaidan) after a Twitter account appeared with that name and quickly gained popularity. Euromaidan soon became the largest pro-democracy movement in Europe since 1989. Protestors were particularly angry with Yanukovych’s blatant corruption, official malfeasance, and especially human rights violations, which was further emphasized by his crackdown on protesters beginning on November 30th, resulting in dozens of people injured (including several journalists) after numerous excessive force incidents by the Berkut riot police. The response by the public was overwhelmingly in support of the protesters, and more than 500,000 Kyivans (some estimates went as high as 800,000) joined them in the streets. Violence continued to escalate the following day and then on December 11 a government force of about 4,000 Berkut, VV internal troops, and government-paid street thugs (known as Titushky) attacked the protester camp just after 1 AM with the intent to clear it out. People were summoned to the square by the ringing of the bells of St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery continuously for four hours. Ultimately the protesters prevailed and pushed the government forces completely out of the square.

The government responded by passing severe laws against public protests. This precipitated violent clashes between protesters and police on Hrushevsky Street not far from Independence Square between January 19 and January 22nd, 2014. This led to the occupation of government buildings by protesters all over Ukraine. The anti-protest laws were repealed (mostly) and Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned on January 28th. This, plus an amnesty issued to protesters on February 16th, calmed tensions down briefly before violence again broke out on February 18th. The worst violence was on February 20th, when the outbreak of protests that became known as the Revolution of Dignity led to the deaths of nearly 100 protesters and 13 police officers. Most of the protester deaths were from rooftop police snipers, who began firing on the protesters as they advanced. The following day an agreement was signed between Yanukovych and his political opposition that organized an interim government and created reforms such as changes in the constitution and new elections. Despite signing the agreement, and despite the fact that he would have remained president (with some of his powers limited), Yanukovych fled Kyiv in secret that evening. The next day the Ukrainian parliament voted unanimously to remove Yanukovych since he had abandoned his official duties and also voted to reinstate the 2004 constitution.

Yanukovych had fled to Russia, where he had a press conference on February 28th. He declared the planned elections in Ukraine “illegal.” In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared what happened in Ukraine a “coup” while at the same time ordering the Russian military to make plans to seize Crimea. Beginning on February 27, 2014 Russian spetznaz (they had removed all Russian insignia but weren’t fooling anyone) seized control of most of the Ukrainian military bases in Crimea, the Simferopol Airport, and government buildings in Crimea. Putin and Russian media pretended that these “mysterious” troops were locals who had “spontaneously” risen up and uniformed and equipped themselves from military surplus stores and the Ukrainian military. But of course, it was utter bullshit – they were Russian troops seizing Ukrainian territory. Russia’s bald-faced seizure of Crimea was followed by a “referendum” on March 16, 2014 in which local voters were given two choices, neither of which was to remain Ukrainian. The campaign before the election was in essence pro-Russian, with posters accusing the new Ukrainian government of being fascists and Neo-Nazis and featuring crossed-out swastikas. Ironically, the Russians invited election observers from Europe who were entirely from European far-right political parties and groups, some of which were almost certainly actual neo-Nazis. Unsurprisingly, the observers said everything was fine with the referendum, with between 95 and 98% of votes cast in favor of becoming part of Russia. This was the first time a European country had annexed another European country’s territory since World War Two. At the same time that Russia took Crimea, protests that were pro-Russian and anti-Maidan began in parts of southern and eastern Ukraine, the parts of Ukraine where ethnic Russians were concentrated and Russian was more commonly spoken. In the eastern Donbas, this became an active conflict between pro-Russian separatists and the new Ukrainian government. Again, the Russians secretly fed the conflict with men and materiel. By August, 2014 Ukraine had regained much of its territory, which in turn led the Russians to step up their military intervention and help the pro-Russian forces take back most of the lost territory.

An agreement was signed in Minsk in September 2014 that implemented a cease-fire and was supposed to lead to elections in December. But the separatists preempted this with their own elections in November, which of course the Russians embraced, in defiance of the Minsk agreement they had signed. In January 2015 the Russians sent another sizable military force into the war to help the separatists and Ukraine lost control of Donetsk and Debaltseve by the end of the month. So in February a second attempt at peace was made in Minsk with the participation of Belarus, Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine. Ukraine was struggling. Russia was pouring weapons and soldiers into the area while still pretending that they weren’t, even arguing that they couldn’t help with the implementation of the new Minsk agreement because they weren’t really involved in the war. This absurdity was further complicated by repeated violations of the ceasefire and also by the arguments between the combatants over local elections in the two Ukrainian Oblasts where the separatists were concentrated: Donetsk and Luhansk. After being postponed from the fall of 2015 to the spring of 2016, the elections were postponed to July and then postponed again to November 2016.

This mess continued, more or less, until 2019 when a new agreement was signed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Ukraine, Russia, and the Russian-controlled oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk with their weird Russian-controlled-but-pretending-not-to-be governments. I am not going to try to coherently explain that whole period because frankly, it’s a huge mess. I don’t understand everything, and I have studied it closely. By this time Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been elected President of Ukraine, and his whole story (though fascinating) is beyond the scope of this post. But just know that Zelenskyy tried in good faith (I believe) to end the war in Donbas through the Minsk agreements and probably still thought he could have talks with Putin and achieve peace as late as 2021 or possibly early 2022. But Putin has never, ever, ever, in my opinion, negotiated in good faith. Even after massive troops buildups near the Ukrainian border, Russian officials kept insisting that Russia did not have plans to invade Ukraine as late as February 23, 2022. And so naturally they invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

That brings us up to the war as it currently taking place. It is the largest and bloodiest (by far) war in Europe since World War Two. And the reason it is happening at all is entirely due to Vladimir Putin and Russia. Russia seems to have thought it would be able to capture Kyiv within a few days, and basically control the country within less than two weeks. Putin’s speech he gave on Russian media at the start of the invasion was full of all sorts of ridiculous and totally baseless claims: Russian troops were “peacekeepers” coming in to save the people of Donetsk and Luhansk from Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” that were controlled by the West. He also claimed that Ukraine was committing genocide against ethnic Russians, that Ukraine was trying to build nuclear weapons, and that they were allowing NATO to build secret bases on their territory or some shit. He also claimed Russia just wanted the “demilitarization and deNazification” of Ukraine. The amount of horseshit that is flowing out of Russia concerning Ukraine and the war is enough to fertilize the Sahara Desert. People pushing the Russian talking points CANNOT BE TRUSTED. Sadly, that includes a lot of westerners, including Americans from both the far-right and far-left of the political spectrum. If you think that they aren’t doing it for the money (and I am willing to bet a lot of them are in fact being paid by Russia), you are probably wrong.

I still love much about Russian history and culture. But Russia is led by one of the most awful people on the planet, and nothing and no one will convince me otherwise, ever. The day he is gone will be a joyous day for humanity, kind of like a certain orange person we all know and hate.

So, anyway. Whew. That was a lot of work. Hopefully a good summary. My apologies for the preponderance of Wikipedia links, but since most media is now stuck behind paywalls, my options are much more limited.

-Geoff

AI in America – A Critique

As someone who has worked in IT for… well, almost 30 years now, I have generally embraced new technology as it arrives. Certainly there have been trends in the industry that I have not been enthusiastic about at all, such as the domination of the software market by subscription models which require you to pay a monthly or a yearly fee. That trend has also led to software makers not selling software on a CD anymore, and that led to computer makers not putting CD-ROM drives in computers anymore. I am not a fan. I also dislike the trend that makes devices smaller and thinner at the cost of said devices not having 3.5 mm headphone jacks or ethernet ports or even many ports at all. It means that to connect things that used to be quite standard (like a printer, or a network cable) you now have to buy an adapter or a dock of some sort (unless it’s Bluetooth or wireless). And that’s annoying to me.

But the hands-down worst thing (in my opinion) that the technology industry has embraced in recent years is AI, or as the orange moron in the White House and his sycophants like to call it, SI [I don’t particularly care what he calls it and so I will continue to call it AI and risk the ire of Trump and MAGA everywhere]. There are a lot of reasons I dislike AI: it has been vastly oversold to the public in terms of what it can actually do accurately; it is costing a truly gigantic amount of money and so far has not shown much return-on-investment (in fact it seems to have all the makings of a big financial bubble); the technology is supposed to put a lot of people out of work, and many companies are already using AI as an excuse to trim their workforce; far too many people in the industry are pushing uses of the technology out without thinking of the constitutional, ethical, and legal implications of what it does (not to mention them not having any real plans to deal with the rapidly mounting instances of misuse of the technology); and finally, the tech CEOs and billionaires pushing all this absolutely DO NOT have the best intentions towards democratic societies, civilization, and the overwhelming majority of the human race. They are out for themselves and don’t care about democracy. They want to accumulate as much money and power as possible before everything falls apart. So no wonder they have embraced Trump so quickly. The speed at which data centers and AI-based surveillance technology is being pushed out in the United States should absolutely be cause for alarm, and not just because they cause a host of environmental problems as well as consume obscene amounts of electricity and fresh water. They also play a huge role in the domination of cultural and societal narratives on media and social media. That’s why some people freaked out so much when Ukraine destroyed Russian data centers. The attacks showed that much of the traffic on social media (and probably millions of Elon’s followers, for example) are actually bots. Traffic and number of followers determine things like ad revenue for social media platforms. The guy who used to go on and on about how he wanted to get rid of all the bots on the social media platform he wanted to buy actually benefits from millions of bot accounts on his platform because they pay monthly subscription fees to get blue checkmarks and as long as he gets paid and they drive the messages that he agrees with (and they most certainly do) he won’t do anything about them.

Also, AI has become such a huge part of surveillance technology that the cameras that use AI to help identify license plates (known as ALPR or ANPR cameras generally) have inspired a whole new social movement that is very anti-surveillance state: websites (such as deflock.org) dedicated to showing you exactly where the cameras are located; helpful instructions on how to fight the companies trying to put up the cameras in your community; some folks are just cutting all the cameras in their community down; some people are using expandable foam insulation to disable the cameras without even having to remove them; some people make signs with very long poles to block the cameras. It’s fascinating to see the creativity as well as the fact that people are all across the ideological spectrum in their opposition to the cameras.

But despite this encouraging collective effort against AI surveillance, some of the kids are not alright. There seems to be a growing trend in which young people are using AI for virtually anything and everything. And their parents, for the most part, have no idea what their kids are doing with AI. Kelly and I personally overheard a conversation in our little Vermont town between a parent and their tween-aged kid in which the kid insisted that AI was their friend. Kids, at least broadly, do not have the ability to determine the difference between real emotions and the emotions simulated by a chatbot. They don’t have the experience and judgment to question the answers AI gives them. And they certainly don’t realize that chatbots are basically intended to agree with you all the time because the designers made them that way to encourage more use. So AI will tell you that you are right even when it comes to encouraging destructive or suicidal behavior. Even AI bots specifically designed for mental health purposes have failed when dealing with suicidal users. Parents of tweens and teenagers who become emotionally dependent on AI bots, as well as those with younger kids should try to be wary and informed when it comes to AI and their kids’ interactions with it.

So if you want to use AI to do your homework for you, or if you want to hand your creative impulses over to it and let it do all your writing and thinking for you, be my guest, but don’t expect me to support you by enthusiastically embracing the technology and the slop that it generates as “literature” or “art” or anything of the sort. I think it’s crap. And I think that techbro billionaires would LOVE to not have to worry about paying salaries and benefits to human beings if they could just buy robots or AI tokens to do all the work instead. But I will keep insisting that my books and music and movies be made by people, and I hope society will ultimately agree with me.

-Geoff

The 2016 election takes a turn for the surreal

This would be a noteworthy and historic election in any circumstances because of the selection of Hillary Rodham Clinton as the first woman to be nominated for President of the United States by a major political party.  And as much as I have problems with many of Clinton’s policy choices over the years, generally speaking I would consider her to be a highly experienced politician and quite well qualified.

Then there’s the other party and their nominee.  If someone had written this story ten years ago as fiction, people would have thought it was totally over-the top.  An egomaniacal reality TV star has gained the party’s nomination for President, and in the meantime, has also pretty much wrenched control of the party away from the establishment.  And to top it all off, there are now questions as to the exact nature of the relationship between Trump and Russia, for God’s sake.

Continue reading “The 2016 election takes a turn for the surreal”